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	<title>The CineFiles &#187; educated guess</title>
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		<title>The CineFiles &#187; educated guess</title>
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		<title>Oscar Picks</title>
		<link>http://cinefiles.wordpress.com/2006/02/09/oscar-picks/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 09 Feb 2006 07:56:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ben</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Academy Awards]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oscars]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[actors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[actresses]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[awards]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[best-of]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[buzz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[comments]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[directors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[educated guess]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[oscar picks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reviews]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[So, it&#8217;s about time to take a good, hard look at Oscar nominations and set out a few picks based on what the Academy has decided are the best films from these year&#8217;s litter. Keep in mind that I&#8217;m in no way suggesting these will be the picks that will be chosen, rather that these [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=cinefiles.wordpress.com&blog=51505&post=22&subd=cinefiles&ref=&feed=1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class='snap_preview'><br /><p>So, it&#8217;s about time to take a good, hard look at Oscar nominations and set out a few picks based on what the Academy has decided are the best films from these year&#8217;s litter. Keep in mind that I&#8217;m in no way suggesting these will be the picks that will be chosen, rather that these are what I would pick out of what has been laid for this year&#8217;s presentation.</p>
<p>So, here goes:</p>
<ul>
<li>Best Actor</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Philip Seymour Hoffman in <em>Capote</em></strong><br />
Terrence Howard in <em>Hustle &amp; Flow</em><br />
Heath Ledger in <em>Brokeback Mountain</em><br />
Joaquin Phoenix in <em>Walk the Line</em><br />
David Strathairn in <em>Good Night, and Good Luck</em></p>
<p>This year features one of the best selections of talent of any recent year in Oscar history. All said and done, I wouldn&#8217;t be upset if any particular actor walked away with this trophy. The only caveat I might add is that I have not had the opportunity to check out <em>Walk the Line</em>. Overall, I feel that Philip Seymour Hoffman&#8217;s performance brought a complexity that wasn&#8217;t as fulfilled by the other nominations, but even that perception maybe a bit of a reach with competition as strong as this category features.</p>
<ul>
<li>Best Actress</li>
</ul>
<p>Judi Dench in <em>Mrs. Henderson Presents</em><br />
Felicity Huffman in <em>Transamerica</em><br />
<strike>Keira Knightley in <em>Pride &amp; Prejudice</em></strike><br />
Charlize Theron in <em>North Country</em><br />
Reese Witherspoon in <em>Walk the Line</em></p>
<p>For top female honors this year, I&#8217;m ashamed to say I&#8217;ve only seen one of the pieces nominated, <em>Pride and Prejudice</em>, and while I do feel that this is one of Keira Knightley strongest performances and I haven&#8217;t yet witnessed her competition first-hand, I would be disappointed if she walked away with top honors.</p>
<ul>
<li>Best Supporting Actor</li>
</ul>
<p>George Clooney in <em>Syriana</em><br />
<strong>Matt Dillon in <em>Crash</em></strong><br />
Paul Giamatti in <em>Cinderella Man</em><br />
Jake Gyllenhaal in <em>Brokeback Mountain</em><br />
William Hurt in <em>A History of Violence</em></p>
<p>Finally, we reach a category that I feel confident addressing, as I have had the chance to check all of these out. Unfortunately, outside of Matt Dillon and Jake Gyllenhaal, I&#8217;m somewhat underwhelmed by the supporting male performances this year. While the remaining three were not particularly disappointing on there own, I don&#8217;t feel like these are particularly strong contenders for Best Supporting Actor. In the end, my vote goes to Dillon for a complex  and brave performance in <em>Crash</em>.</p>
<ul>
<li>Best Supporting Actress</li>
</ul>
<p>Amy Adams in <em>Junebug</em><br />
Catherine Keener in <em>Capote</em><br />
Frances McDormand in <em>North Country</em><br />
<strong>Rachel Weisz in <em>The Constant Gardener</em></strong><br />
Michelle Williams in <em>Brokeback Mountain</em></p>
<p>Interestingly, while I managed to miss nearly all of the Best Actress performances this year, I caught all but one of the Supporting Actress roles, that of Frances McDormand in <em>North Country</em>. This is another category that I&#8217;m comfortable with all of the nominees, a trend I hope continues in following years. While overall I was greatly impressed with Catherine Keener in her collective performances this year (<em>Capote, The 40-year-old Virgin, Ballad of Jack and Rose</em>) I don&#8217;t feel that she quite overcame Rachel Weisz. I&#8217;ve heard a lot of disdain over Wiesz&#8217;s nominations and awards so far this season but her performance in <em>The Constant Gardener</em> blew me away, showing an ability that I had not quite witnessed in her previous work.</p>
<ul>
<li>Best Direction</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Brokeback Mountain</em> Ang Lee<br />
<em>Capote</em> Bennett Miller<br />
<em>Crash</em> Paul Haggis<br />
<strong><em>Good Night, and Good Luck</em></strong> <strong>George Clooney</strong><br />
<em>Munich</em> Steven Spielberg</p>
<p>Again, I haven&#8217;t had the good fortune of seeing Spielberg&#8217;s <em>Munich</em>. That said, here&#8217;s another good run-down of directorial efforts, with no one film dominating the others. In the end, I give it to Clooney, who barely edged out Lee&#8217;s <em>Brokeback Mountain</em>. In the end, this comes down to the directorial chances that Clooney took while approaching this film. <em>Brokeback&#8217;s</em> subject matter pushed the envelope enough and Lee presented the film in a traditional nature, perfectly so, but traditional nonetheless. My tendency is to always lean towards the effort that tests the boundaries and succeeds. In this light, <em>Good Night, and Good Luck</em> takes home my pick.</p>
<ul>
<li>Best Adapted Screenplay</li>
</ul>
<p><strong><em>Brokeback Mountain</em></strong> <strong>Screenplay by Larry McMurtry &amp; Diana Ossana</strong><br />
<em>Capote</em> Screenplay by Dan Futterman<br />
<em>The Constant Gardener</em> Screenplay by Jeffrey Caine<br />
<em>A History of Violence </em>Screenplay by Josh Olson<br />
<em>Munich</em> Screenplay by Tony Kushner and Eric Roth</p>
<p>For years <em>Brokeback Mountain</em> has been described as the best screenplay that&#8217;s never been made, and now that it has been made it&#8217;s easy to see why. This film would never have succeeded if the audience was given any reason to doubt the believability of it&#8217;s characters, and in this aspect it succeeds admirably. From the dialog to the timing and arc of the storyline, this screenplay was honed to perfection by Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana and deserves this honor without question.</p>
<ul>
<li>Best Original Screenplay</li>
</ul>
<p><strong><em>Crash</em></strong> <strong>Screenplay by Paul Haggis &amp; Bobby Moresco, Story by Paul Haggis</strong><br />
<em>Good Night, and Good Luck</em> Screenplay by George Clooney &amp; Grant Heslov<br />
<em>Match Point</em> Written by Woody Allen<br />
<em>The Squid and the Whale</em> Written by Noah Baumbach<br />
<em>Syriana</em> Written by Stephen Gaghan</p>
<p>I&#8217;m a sucker for the &#8220;hyperlink&#8221; genre of films that has become prominent over the last few years (<em>21 grams, Traffic</em>) and greatly respect a screenplay that successfully pulls off this approach. On top of the ingrained level of difficulty in writing this type of film, Paul Haggis takes on a complex narrative full of coincidences that must seem realistic to be believed. I left theater completely satisfied after seeing <em>Crash</em> and excited to see Haggis&#8217; future work.</p>
<ul>
<li>Best Film</li>
</ul>
<p><em><strong>Brokeback Mountain</strong><br />
Capote<br />
Crash<br />
Good Night, and Good Luck<br />
Munich</em></p>
<p>Finally the big one and, despite not having seen <em>Munich</em>, I feel confident in <em>Brokeback Mountain</em>. Regardless (and yet because) of the gay issues that the film explores, I have no doubt this film will go down over time as one of the best romances ever to make it&#8217;s mark on celluloid. While I&#8217;m generally scared to death of the thought of Jake Gyllenhaal eternalized for future generations, his mediocrity does not make it&#8217;s presence known this time around and I will somehow manage to make it through each day because of this fact.</p>
<p>Well, there you have it &#8212; my picks from this year&#8217;s Oscar litter. Feel free to let us know what you think and perhaps knock some sense into me&#8230;</p>
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